Surviving the privacy apocalypse: Key takeaways from ASW’s slightly terrifying keynote

Another year, another Affiliate Summit West, where a global industry entourage descends upon Vegas to discuss the future of affiliate and performance marketing alongside, naturally, to see how long we can survive on nothing but coffee, networking and Vegas-priced cocktails. This year’s keynote was a sobering reminder that, much like my ill-advised blackjack strategy, tracking and attribution in affiliate marketing are under serious threat.

After a hyped-up, on-stage DJ attempted (and despite best efforts in my opinion, failed) to rally the morning troops from their jet-lag / late-night slumber / morning “Vegas” mood, Steve Brown, CEO at Moonpull was joined on stage by Santi Pierini, CEO at CJ, David Lloyd, Chief Customer Officer at Awin and Garth Harris, General Manager at CAKE, to discuss the ongoing impact of privacy regulations, the crumbling effectiveness of tracking, and how we, as an industry, can pivot before we all collectively crash into a compliance-shaped brick wall.

Here’s what went down – and why it matters.

1. Privacy regulations: digital marketing’s favourite nightmare

If you thought GDPR was just an annoying consent modal that users blindly accept, think again. Between Europe’s stringent data protection rules and the patchwork of US state regulations (CCPA, CPRA, VCDPA – you get the idea), marketers are facing stricter enforcement. Consent is king, and if your tracking strategy doesn’t align with new regulations, your legal team might start twitching uncontrollably.

2. The great traffic disappearance act

According to the panel, up to 50% of traffic (30% in the US, 50% in Europe) can be affected, depending on the consent mechanisms deployed. With browsers tightening privacy restrictions and ad-blockers on the rise, businesses are struggling to attribute revenue accurately. The message from the panel? Adapt or risk losing measurement entirely – leading to revenue loss, inaccurate attribution, and some very awkward performance reports.

3. Consent: no longer just a checkbox

The days of the default opt-in are over. Now, users need to actively say, “Yes, please track me” which, let’s be honest, most won’t. That means brands have to work harder to build trust and offer value in exchange for data. The key takeaway? Transparency isn’t optional – it’s survival.

4. EU vs. US: who’s got it worse?

The short answer? Everyone. The EU’s GDPR is ruthlessly strict but at least consistent. Meanwhile, the US has a ‘choose-your-own-adventure’ approach to privacy laws, with different rules for different states, however the CCPA is generally seen as the ‘starting point’ for said adventures. The panel references the teams of people they’ve had to hire and departments they’ve had to create in order to deal with data compliance.

5. Affiliate marketing’s identity crisis

Without reliable tracking, how do we prove conversions? If no one gets credit for the sale, does the sale even exist? The industry is scrambling; refining tracking models to ensure sales are accurately credited, preventing lost revenue and maintaining confidence in performance marketing.

6. The first-party data land grab

With third-party cookies crumbling like my post-conference stamina, brands are racing to collect first-party data. The catch? Users are getting stingier with their personal info, so incentives need to be smarter. No, a 5% discount won’t cut the mustard – start thinking of VIP access, exclusive content, and rewards worth remembering.

7. AI: the rebel tool against the tracking crackdown?

There was growing chatter during the panel that AI and probabilistic tracking might be the industry’s secret weapon against the tightening of tracking capabilities. With traditional methods becoming increasingly restricted, AI-driven models and data science could offer ways to maintain attribution accuracy without breaking privacy laws. While some see AI as another overhyped buzzword, others believe it could be the key to keeping performance marketing measurable and profitable in a post-cookie world.

8. Industry unity: a rare but necessary concept

The panel stressed that tackling privacy challenges isn’t a solo mission. Ad networks, publishers, brands – everyone needs to work together. That means lobbying for fairer regulations, sharing best practices, and maybe even agreeing on some universal tracking standards (gasp).
There was a shout out at this point towards the significant work that Kevin Edwards has been putting in since founding the Affiliate & Partner Marketing Association (shameless plug – intent.ly is a founding member), unifying industry stakeholders in order to lobby with regulators and showcase the value that the affiliate and performance market drives.

9. eCommerce woes: conversions in crisis

Brands are feeling the sting, with conversion rates slipping thanks to tracking limitations. Without personalised targeting and retargeting, customers are slipping through the cracks, taking their wallets with them. Marketers need smarter, privacy-safe strategies to keep shoppers engaged.

10. Fines: the scary bit

Ignore privacy laws at your peril – regulators are handing out fines like conference swag. The stakes are high, with penalties reaching (unbeknownst to me) up to $7,500 per single violation in the US. In other words, make sure your legal team isn’t spending too much time at the ASW happy hours.

What next? 5 actionable steps for survival

So, what’s the playbook for the affiliate and performance marketing industry, and for those within that who are tasked with navigating this chaos?

1. Invest in first-party data
If you’re still relying on third-party cookies, stop. Build your own data strategy, find ways of rewarding and incentivising users to share information, and nurture those direct relationships.

2. Adapt your attribution models
Experiment with probabilistic attribution, AI-driven models, and new tracking solutions to bridge the tracking gaps. As an example – more info on Awin’s new conversion protection initiative (CPI) here.

3. Work with regulators, not against them
The industry needs to stop treating privacy laws as an enemy and start collaborating with policymakers to create practical solutions that work for everyone.

4. Educate customers on data transparency
Users aren’t anti-tracking; they’re anti-creepy-tracking. Be clear about what data you collect and how it benefits them, and you might just win them over.

5. Collaborate as an industry
Brands, publishers, and networks need to work together to create new standards, share data responsibly, and ensure performance marketing doesn’t become a relic of the past.

Final thoughts: no one’s safe, but we must adapt

Let’s be honest – tracking and data protection aren’t exactly the sexiest topics, especially not at 10am in Vegas when half the room is still clutching an espresso like a life raft. But credit where it’s due – this session was well-moderated, engaging, and genuinely insightful. Turns out, discussing the slow demise of traditional tracking can actually be interesting… provided you throw in a bit of existential dread and a lot of caffeine.

The days of frictionless tracking and free-flowing data are gone, but affiliate and performance marketing isn’t dead – far from it. If we innovate, adapt, lobby and maybe say a small prayer to the compliance gods, we can turn privacy challenges into opportunities.